Risk Management Systems During Market Bubbles: The Weakness of Quantitative Models

Abstract

Like any information system, a risk management information system can only be as good as the quality of the underlying data used, the ability to model this information, and the ability to accurately interpret the results. This article explores risk models used by financial institutions for measuring and valuing risk, how the information was interpreted by management for setting capital reserve allocations, and how overreliance on purely quantitative models caused many to overlook signs of trouble in the real estate and housing finance markets.