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The Journal of Structured Finance

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Quantitative Evaluation of the Relationship Between
Supply and Off-Take Contracts in Petroleum Refinery Projects Utilizing Project Finance

Yang Chu and Tony Merna
The Journal of Structured Finance Spring 2011, 17 (1) 76-95; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jsf.2011.17.1.076
Yang Chu
is an enterprise risk manager in Global Risk Management at IHG in Denham, UK.
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  • For correspondence: chuyang78@hotmail.com
Tony Merna
is a senior partner of Oriel Group Practice and a visiting lecturer in Manchester Business School at The University of Manchester, UK.
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  • For correspondence: anthony.merna@manchester.ac.uk
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Abstract

The petroleum industry is one of the fastest growing sectors in the world in terms of private participation and financing. The risk and uncertainty associated with the crude oil supply and product demand influence the overall economic viability of petroleum refinery projects. Issues associated with the security of a project’s cash flow are of primary concern to investors using project finance in the procurement of petroleum refineries. This article reviews the characteristics of petroleum refinery projects, the concept of project finance, and issues associated with its application, with emphasis on the investigation and appraisal of the arrangement of supply and off-take contracts in relation to risks and economic returns. A mechanism is developed to aid contractual arrangements of supply and off-take strategies in support of project finance transactions in the procurement of petroleum refineries. The mechanism is tested in a case study through computer simulation.

TOPICS: Statistical methods, simulations

  • © 2011 Pageant Media Ltd
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The Journal of Structured Finance: 17 (1)
The Journal of Structured Finance
Vol. 17, Issue 1
Spring 2011
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Quantitative Evaluation of the Relationship Between
Supply and Off-Take Contracts in Petroleum Refinery Projects Utilizing Project Finance
Yang Chu, Tony Merna
The Journal of Structured Finance Apr 2011, 17 (1) 76-95; DOI: 10.3905/jsf.2011.17.1.076

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Quantitative Evaluation of the Relationship Between
Supply and Off-Take Contracts in Petroleum Refinery Projects Utilizing Project Finance
Yang Chu, Tony Merna
The Journal of Structured Finance Apr 2011, 17 (1) 76-95; DOI: 10.3905/jsf.2011.17.1.076
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  • Article
    • Abstract
    • TYPICAL RISK IN REFINERY PROJECTS
    • BUNDLE OF PETROLEUM CONTRACTS
    • MECHANISM
    • TESTING THE MECHANISM IN A CASE STUDY
    • PURE SPOT MARKET SCENARIO
    • BUNDLE OF SUPPLIES AND OFF-TAKES
    • SCENARIO II
    • SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
    • PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
    • REVIEW OF THE CASE STUDY
    • CONCLUSION
    • REFERENCES
  • Info & Metrics
  • PDF (Subscribers Only)
  • PDF (Subscribers Only)

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