Macroeconomic Overview of the Global
Economy and Outlook for 2014

Abstract

Panelists discussed home-price behavior and expectations, the potential of buy-to-rent programs, and credit availability. The panelists generally had the view that a housing bubble is not occurring. Differences across geographic markets can make generalizations about national trends difficult. The high end of the housing market has recovered quickly, while credit contraction has caused difficulty for lower-end buyers. The majority of the panel projected a housing price growth rate between 6% and 8% for 2014. A more-diverse population with a potentially lower home ownership rate highlights the necessity of expanding the shrinking credit box. The panel was split over whether the single-family buy-to rent is a just a trade that will end when the rally in home prices stalls or whether it is a new business here to stay. There was little consensus on whether credit availability will improve or decline given the prospect of Fed tapering, moving to the Qualified Mortgage (QM), and changes in Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) leadership.