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The Journal of Structured Finance
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The Journal of Structured Finance

The Journal of Structured Finance

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Primary Article

Merchant Energy Road to Recovery

The Outlook from Inside the Tunnel

Todd Filsinger and Mike Hormell
The Journal of Structured Finance Fall 2003, 9 (3) 14-19; DOI: https://doi.org/10.3905/jsf.2003.320315
Todd Filsinger
A member of the Management Group at PA Consulting Group in Broomfield, CO.
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  • For correspondence: todd.filsinger@paconsulting.com
Mike Hormell
A managing consultant with PA Consulting Group, Broomfield, CO.
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Abstract

Over the past year, energy merchant restructurings and bankruptcies have signaled that the sector has entered the bottom of a business cycle. The questions any current or potential investor in energy assets should ask are: “What are the factors driving the current energy market depression?” and “What are the factors that will affect the timing of market recovery?” For the energy company in distress, the road to financial solvency must consider three main concepts: portfolio composition, regional market exposure, and capital structure. This article addresses the effect of regional market exposure on a portfolio's performance in this downward business cycle. The important regional market characteristics are reserve margin, fuel on the margin, and spark spreads. Other possible complications outside these fundamentals that could change the way the market recovers include a slowing down of project cancellations and postponements, a continuing credit crunch, and tightening government environmental policies.

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The Journal of Structured Finance
Vol. 9, Issue 3
Fall 2003
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Merchant Energy Road to Recovery
Todd Filsinger, Mike Hormell
The Journal of Structured Finance Oct 2003, 9 (3) 14-19; DOI: 10.3905/jsf.2003.320315

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Merchant Energy Road to Recovery
Todd Filsinger, Mike Hormell
The Journal of Structured Finance Oct 2003, 9 (3) 14-19; DOI: 10.3905/jsf.2003.320315
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